California Real Estate and Investing news
According to reputable and respected journalists George Avalos and Barbara E. Hernandez of the MEDIANEWS network, a two-year-old bill is about to become due for the San Francisco Bay Area as well as the rest of California in the form of job losses which have been triggered by the rather steep in the housing market, a recent forecast states.
Experience points to a lag time of two years between a peak in home-building activity and a pronounced slowdown, or even job losses, for industries whose fortunes are linked to the housing market, according to researchers with the UCLA Anderson Forecast. The economists studied four cycles involving housing slumps and the after-effects on the job market.
Job losses connected to the housing bust have already begun to come to the fore in some areas like the East Bay. Even more troubling is the fact that the early indicators seem to suggest that the Alameda-Contra Costa region is being hit quite a bit harder than the state of California, broadly speaking.
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Over the past year, the East Bay has lost some eighteen hundred or so jobs in the normally robust construction sector. This is a decline of almost three percent.
In the meantime, San Joaquin County has lost about eight hundred construction jobs, which is a reduction of just under five percent. And in the state as a whole, construction jobs have shrunk by some .7 percent during the year which ended in May.
And yet, the East Bay all by itself has been the hapless recipient of more than a quarter of all the construction positions which have been lost in the Golden State over that same time frame.
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In particular, 1,200 positions have been lost in the credit intermediation industry, which also includes many high paying positions for both loan officers and mortgage agents.
University analysts have predicted that the slump in house sales may be finally beginning to abate in the state. Prices are staying flat in certain individual markets.”Price appreciation has settled in around zero for the Bay Area,” one analyst recently wrote.
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In spring or summer 2005, building permits in California hit a peak and then began to slide, stated Ryan Ratcliff, an respected economist from the University of California.
“Two years later is right now,” Ratcliff said.
Meanwhile, Canada’s unemployment rate should decline to a record low next year, according to the OECD.
While that nation’s unemployment rate is expected to fall to a record low next year of six percent, according international economic think-tank
(the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), they also prrdict that general economic growth & job growth will outpace that in Am
